UK Foresight Report Examines Supply Chain Risk and Resilience to 2040

Global supply chains underpin the UK's growth, prosperity, and security, linking households and businesses to goods, services, and critical inputs produced worldwide. However, those chains are increasingly exposed to disruption from climate change, geopolitical tensions, and structural dependencies that are often poorly understood. Conventional trade statistics show where goods are bought and sold but do not reveal how risks accumulate across the many layers of production involved in making a finished product.

A UK government foresight study published on 24 September 2026 sets out how global supply chains expose the country to layered, interconnected risks driven by climate change, geopolitics, and structural dependencies, and explores how those risks may evolve to 2040.

Vulnerabilities can sit several steps back in the production process, well before goods reach the UK, or arise at shared transport routes and chokepoints that no single firm can control. The report notes that highly interconnected supply chains bring significant benefits while also creating vulnerabilities that are not always visible and cannot be addressed by commercial incentives alone.

Scope and purpose of the report

The study was commissioned in response to growing recognition that traditional approaches to supply chain risk — often focused on direct trade relationships or single points of failure — are no longer sufficient. Described as a foresight study, it is designed to help decision makers navigate deep uncertainty and develop more resilient, flexible approaches to economic resilience. It does not attempt to predict specific disruptions or prescribe a single policy solution.

The report brings together three complementary strands: a review of existing literature and evidence on how vulnerability and resilience emerge; supply chain network modelling to examine how disruption can propagate through interconnected production systems; and scenarios exploring how global supply chains relevant to the UK could evolve to 2040 under different geopolitical and climate adaptation futures.

Network modelling and risk archetypes

The network modelling moves beyond country-level trade exposure to identify recurring risk archetypes and highlight where vulnerabilities are concentrated in ways not directly visible in aggregate data. A central finding is that systemic risk is often highly concentrated, with a small number of firms, countries, or processing stages accounting for a disproportionate share of potential disruption. These risks frequently arise from network position — such as upstream bottlenecks or limited substitutability — rather than trade volumes alone.

That finding helps explain why some vulnerabilities lie beyond the control of individual firms and require coordination and system-level responses. The report argues that strengthening resilience requires proportionate responses combining firm-level action with coordination and targeted system-level interventions.

Government and business roles

The report was introduced with a foreword by Sir Chris Bryant MP, Minister for Trade at the Department for Business and Trade, who noted that government is acting to strengthen UK resilience by supporting and facilitating coordination to address shared risks. He added that businesses also play a vital role by improving visibility of their supply chains, understanding upstream risks, and exploring where sectoral, regional, or international coordination can help reduce shared vulnerabilities.

Dame Angela McLean, Government Chief Scientific Adviser, described the report as a contribution to a shared effort, stating that foresight cannot remove uncertainty but can help in preparing for it. The report is intended to be useful to policy makers, analysts, and others working on supply chain resilience across government and beyond, with the expectation that the challenges it explores will continue to evolve.