Iran Adviser Warns Conflict Could Reach Indian Ocean if US Strikes Again
Based on reporting by Hindustan Times
Yahya Rahim Safavi, speaking in a video released by Iran's Fars news agency, said: "Since the conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, it is possible that, in response to more war, the front will expand even further, reaching the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond." The remarks come amid sustained tensions between Iran and the US around the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and key maritime trade routes.
A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader has warned that the country could extend its military conflict to the Indian Ocean if the United States carries out another attack, as tensions between Tehran and Washington remain elevated.
Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that any renewed US military action could trigger retaliation against American interests and assets across the region. On Monday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard also indicated it could alter its military strategies and targets if further provoked, according to the Associated Press.
Why the Indian Ocean Is Significant
The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, covering approximately 70.5 million square kilometres, or around 20% of Earth's water surface. It is bordered to the north by Asia, including India, Iran, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
A key maritime link in the region is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and ultimately the Indian Ocean. Shipping through that waterway has already been affected by attacks and heightened security concerns. Pressure has also mounted on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
On Monday, only 17 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the previous weekend, compared with 37 the week before and a pre-war daily average of around 125 vessels. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb also declined, according to Reuters.
Implications for India
Any further disruption extending toward the Indian Ocean would carry consequences beyond the Gulf, as the region serves as a major route for energy and commercial shipping to and from Asia. India, situated at the northern end of the Indian Ocean, has extensive maritime trade ties with the Gulf, Africa and Southeast Asia, meaning a wider conflict could raise risks for shipping, insurance, energy supplies and regional trade.
The US-Iran conflict has already had a visible effect on India, primarily through higher oil, LPG and shipping costs. With tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupting energy supplies, crude oil prices have risen, increasing India's import bill and putting pressure on the rupee. India imports more than 88% of its crude oil, leaving it exposed to disruptions in that corridor.
Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel in September, while India's crude basket averaged approximately $102.11 per barrel, up from $90.19 in August and $82.04 in July.